Financial foresight for everyone
Treasury yields, the yield curve, credit spreads, and inflation expectations.
What is the yield curve?
A bond is a loan you make to a government or company. In return, they pay you interest (the "yield") and return your principal at maturity. US Treasury bonds are considered the safest investment in the world.
The yield curve plots interest rates across different maturities — from 3-month bills to 30-year bonds. Normally it slopes upward: longer loans demand higher rates to compensate for more risk and uncertainty.
Normal curve
Long-term rates are higher than short-term rates. This is the typical state — it means the economy is expected to grow and inflation may rise.
Inverted curve
Short-term rates are higher than long-term rates. This is unusual and has historically preceded every US recession. It means the market expects the Fed to cut rates in the future.
US3M
3-Month Treasury Bill
US6M
6-Month Treasury Bill
US1Y
1-Year Treasury Note
US2Y
2-Year Treasury Note
US5Y
5-Year Treasury Note
US10Y
10-Year Treasury Note
US20Y
20-Year Treasury Bond
US30Y
30-Year Treasury Bond
IG
Investment Grade Spread
HY
High Yield Spread
TIPS
10Y TIPS Yield
BREAKEVEN
10Y Breakeven Inflation
Horizon
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